Just had a look at the mwis forecast and it does not look great. But it does not look terminal either. It looks like the start will be fine, through Friday evening and (thankfully!) through the night. It seems as though it will be clear and cool which will allow for good progress.
As Saturday progresses though it will get wet. The timings are all a bit vague according to the various sources although these will become clearer as the day approaches and the forecasts become confident. It looks like there is a low coming in over Wales and the SW, with the Lakes sitting on the northern fringe of the bad weather. Sunday looks horrible.
This all means that the weather will be at its worst during the hardest part of the round, i.e. leg 4 from Wasdale and onwards.
So, what to do?!?!
Much of the advice I've received about strategy and effort centres around two key themes:
- Don't go off too quickly
- Make the most of the best conditions
It appears that these are, for this weekend at least, in direct contradiction of each other. A faster start means making hay whilst the sun (and moon) shines, but might this mean exploding towards the end, when the rain comes. Going off steadily, as I planned to, will mean I'm better set to last the course, but it'll mean hitting the rain earlier in the round.
I could also start an hour earlier to make a bit more of the finer weather? This depends upon the availability of support, both road and fell. I can;t mess so many people about, but this could be an option. Doing this means getting in touch with my supporters and warning them, which means deciding soon.
It's not so much rain that slows you down, it's lack of visibility. The GPS will help but the fact is it is harder to keep your spirits up when it's murky and wet. It is arguable that these weather conditions have reduced my chances.
But the BGR was not supposed to be easy. It's time to draw upon some facts and experiences. I ran, alone and with a rucksack, on some stretches of the BGR in far worse weather than is forecast and kept to schedule. This time, i have helpers, nothing to carry and I'll be more determined. Also, it's only rain. If you're going to test yourself in the hills, you'll get wet. You've been wet plenty of times and pushed on well. Don't worry :)
The answer to this soliloquy is to keep things simple.
I'm going to start at the appointed time. All the stress of rearranging everything will outweigh the benefit of that extra dry hour.
I am going to try and make up time on legs 1,2 and 3. Not too much, but i need to get as much 'in the bank' as i can before Wasdale without wearing myself out - quite a balancing act. I'll take shorter than planned food stops at Threlkeld and Dunmail (10 mins each if i can) and aim to pull out between 30 mins and an hour on the 23.5hr schedule before Wasdale. I'd rather not be behind schedule when the rain comes, but if i am, i'll push hard to make it up.
This means that leg 4 will feel harder and my leg 4 and 5 pacers will have to work to keep me going. For me, the crux of the whole round has always been leg 4. It's always the bit i've been a little afraid of. The fact that the rain will arrive then truly sets this up as a test of mind and body.
I can cope with this and am ready (but it wouldn't break my heart to see an improved forecast tomorrow!).
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2 comments:
Wet weather is nowhere near as bad as weather that is too hot. The wet rock from Bowfell to Gable will slow you down a little but it doesn't sap much energy so you may find you can keep going at a steady pace for longer. However strong winds can sap energy but the forecast strength of 35 mph although not ideal is not critical.
I would advise against trying to make up time before Dunmail. I always reckon 5 minutes faster before Helvellyn results in 10 minutes slower after Wasdale. If however you are running to a generous schedule (I used a 24hr schedule which gave me a huge psychological boost as I was always well ahead) don't worry about being a little ahead which is comforting but make sure your pacers keep from going to fast on legs 1 and 2 (particularly before Helvellyn).
It looks as if the wind chill at times could be as low as minus 10 or lower so I wouldn't skimp on the clothing! A change of clothing at most if not all road stops can be a boost in such conditions as you will get cold after 5-10 mins stoppped.
All the best for Saturday. Hope you sleep well tonight. Stay relaxed and enjoy it, whatever the weather!
DONT WORRY TOO MUCH ABOUT RAIN. IF WINDS ARE LIGHT IT IS BETTER FOR PROGRESS EVEN OF IT IS WET. DONT GO OFF TOO FAST ON LEG 1 AT NIGHT IT IS HEAVY UNDERFOOT FROM SKIDDAW TO BLENCATHRA (CAREFULL HALLS FELL WILL BE SLIPPERY). EASE YOURSELF INTO IT. LEG 2 IS WERE TO MAKE TIME UP IN DAYLIGHT WITH GOOD UNDERFOOT CONDITIONS. YOU CAN MAKE TIME ON LEG 3 ASWELL. I AM FRESH FROM A SUCCESS ON SATURDAY AND WAS LUCKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL CLAG MOST OF THE WAY (22:07). ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST WAS MUCH WORSE EVEN 8 HOURS BEFORE. MY MAIN ADVICE TO YOU IS TRY TO ENJOY IT NO MATTER WHAT. THAT WAS MY ATITUDE AND I NEVER HAD A BAD PATCH. EAT LOTS ASWELL (OBVIUOUS I KNOW BUT YOU HAVE TO START EARLY ON WHEN YOUR BODY ISNT WILLING. YOU SHOULD BE IN BED AFTER ALL)). ALSO EAT WHEN YOU FINISH. I HAD A PINT INSTEAD AND FAINTED DUE TO A BLOOD SUGAR CRASH. ANYWAY ENJOY IT. I ALMOST WHISH I WAS DOING IT AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. ITS A MAGICAL DAY.
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